WHY THE 2024 MEP ELECTION, NOT 2022, IS THE RIGHT YARDSTICK FOR ANALYSIS
By Joe Vella
In the aftermath of last Saturday’s general election, both major parties have been quick to spin the numbers. Labour is celebrating a fourth consecutive victory, while the Nationalists are highlighting gains. But to truly understand how the parties performed, we must look at the right benchmark. The right benchmark is not the 2022 general election, but the most recent nationwide vote: the June 2024 European Parliament election.
If we look at the bar chart, the data is clear. In 2024, Labour secured 45.26% of first-preference votes. In this general election, they rose to 51.77%, a solid 6.51 percentage point increase. The Nationalists improved from 42.02% to 44.68%, gaining 2.66 points. Smaller parties and independents, meanwhile, collapsed from around 12.72% to just 3.55%.
When we examine the table, this comparison reveals that the real momentum in 2026 belonged to Labour. While both major parties advanced from the 2024 baseline, Labour’s surge was more than twice as large as the PN’s. The “swing” narrative pushed by some commentators, that the Nationalists made dramatic inroads, only holds if one selectively compares to Labour’s strong 2022 performance. That approach distorts reality. The 2024 MEP election was the last true test of national sentiment before last week. It reflected current moods, turnout patterns, and voter fragmentation more accurately than an election held four years earlier.
European elections often see higher protest voting and lower turnout. Yet even accounting for that, the trajectory is telling. Labour not only defended its lead but expanded it in a high-turnout general election (87.4%). The PN’s percentage gains, while respectable, were more modest and largely came at the expense of smaller parties.
Political parties naturally prefer flattering comparisons. The Nationalists would rather measure themselves against Labour’s 2022 landslide than acknowledge that, relative to the most recent election, they still trail significantly. Similarly, some may downplay the 2024 result as “just a European vote.” Both instincts should be resisted.
Voters and analysts deserve intellectual honesty. The 2024 MEP election was the latest nationwide poll before 30 May 2026. It is therefore the fairest starting point. By that standard, last week’s result shows Labour consolidating support and the Nationalist Party making steady but limited progress. The swing, on balance, favoured Labour.
Malta’s politics remains competitive, but cherry-picking historical benchmarks does a disservice to the public. If we want an accurate picture of momentum heading into the next parliamentary term, the 2024–2026 comparison is the one that matters.
