By the 16th of February 2022, the NATO-financed and armed Ukrainian Army had concentrated over 70,000 of its most potent forces in the Donbas, and on that fateful day, they started shelling the civilian population of the Donbas again. The massive increase in fire against the population of Donbas from that date onwards (over 200 shells a day) indicated to the Russians that a major offensive to subdue the ethnically Russian separatist republics and possibly even Crimea itself was imminent. Russia urgently requested NATO to agree to a new security arrangement that would bring about a solution to the troubles in Ukraine while ensuring everyone’s security interests. It was arrogantly rebuffed. It consequentially very quickly proceeded to recognise these peoples’ republics’ independence (something it had refrained from doing so for eight years) and then signed a military agreement with them. The Russian intervention can thus only be objectively seen as a pre-emptive move to forestall Kyiv’s moves.
This operation was launched as a matter of urgency on 24 February, eight days after the start of the massive bombardment of the civilian population of Donbas which had been terrorised for eight long years to the deafening silence of the Western leaders and media. This is why the Russians have called a it special military operation because it is not a classic high-intensity war against an intractable enemy but rather a limited combined-arms policing operation, to which Russia has decided to commit only about 10% of its soldiers, without calling on its immense reserves and without declaring a partial, let alone general, mobilisation. Most of the fighting is in fact being conducted by the separatist militias, along with Cossack volunteers, Chechen National Guard, and the Wagner PMC, with the Russians providing mainly overall command and communications along with aviation and artillery support as well as a naval blockade by the Black Sea Fleet.
The fighting in Ukraine was not inevitable, it could have been easily prevented had the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements been respected by Ukraine and had NATO and The EU acceded to Russia’s request for a new security arrangement. Instead, NATO egged on the Ukrainian regime towards ever more reckless decisions the consequence of which ultimately precipitated this conflict.
A conflict in which over a conservative 50,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed so far in a war they can never win and thanks to the equally reckless sanctions regime imposed on Russia, inflation runs rampant and Europe, in particular, is staring at an economic collapse.
Not content with provoking nuclear-armed Russia in Europe, the US seems also hell-bent to provoke another conflict in Asia with China.
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is an extremely reckless provocation, it is the equivalent of a poker player with a bad hand doubling the stakes.
One needs to understand that China considers Taiwan’s airspace to be its own airspace, and since even the US itself internationally recognizes that: “the United States recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” – The US’s decision to ignore China’s protestations about Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, is not only a provocation, it is technically interference in the sovereign affairs of another state. In other words an invasion.
Despite China’s vehement protestations that the visit by the US Speaker of the House without its invitation and consent, would bring about dire repercussions, Pelosi decided to go ahead even though the Pentagon itself thought it a very bad idea – which makes one wonder who is exactly in control in the US? Is anyone in control? And if so what is their goal?
Whoever it is, seems to think that when their geopolitical adversaries warn it of repercussions they must be bluffing – only to eventually react in incredulity when they eventually do respond in ways they have not anticipated.
In a world already on the verge of economic catastrophe, this latest US provocation of another military and economic superpower – the preeminent manufacturing country which leads the production of practically anything you can imagine – from anti-biotics to steel – by orders of magnitude, does not augur well.
By upping up the stakes, the US knows that China will have to react in some way or another – the only question is how it will choose to do so.
Now if you know your history, China’s insistence on the One China policy – is not simply a matter of sovereignty. Taiwan was prior to WWII much like Malta an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’, from which the Japanese conducted their brutal invasion of the mainland where they murdered about 10,000,000 Chinese – and therefore China will never accept it to belong to anyone else – for it that would be an existential threat, just as much a Ukraine in NATO’s hands would have been for Russia and great powers do not entertain such threats, particularly when they have suffered horribly in the past, without reacting.
On the military front, China has already announced that “important military exercises and training activities, including live-fire exercises” in the coastal sea areas and their airspace all around Taiwan, will be held from August 4 to August 7.”
Military Websites are full of videos of Chinese military hardware being moved to the province of Fujian opposite Taiwan, including ballistic missiles and there are those which show that it has even begun loading armoured vehicles onto amphibious assault ships.
Taiwanese military command has confirmed that during this afternoon alone (02/08/2022), over 21 Chinese military aircraft have intruded into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
All this saber-rattling can easily lead to an accidental catastrophe, particularly when the US was compelled to move two carrier strike groups into the area to provide air cover should it need to protect Pelosi’s plane. The next few days will be extremely tense and one can only hope that the situation does not deteriorate.
But China has many more ways to hurt the US and its allies other than militarily – it will for starters solidify its partnership with Russia, defeating all attempts to ‘isolate’ the latter – to the extent for example of even providing it with advanced strike drones for use in Ukraine.
With China being the biggest holder of US debt it can start to dump US bonds, it could curtail its investments in Europe and elsewhere – something which would certainly bring a Europe already tethering on the brink to its ultimate demise – it could impose its own sanctions diverting anything from rare earth materials to bandages to other markets.
The US seems desperate to hold unto a hegemony it has already lost – the world has already moved into a multi-polar reality and it would be better for everyone if the US accepted this reality – but no empire ever cedes its power willingly – and thanks to its reckless actions, we are sliding into a confrontation unlike any other, with consequences we cannot even begin to fathom.