I am here making an analysis of the official statistics that are being published by the Health Department. It is great to note that the number of active cases is going down. But there is a problem with the statistics that are being published by the Maltese Health Department. In a span of two weeks (14 days), the Health Department has published the following numbers of positive cases.
These numbers are new active cases declared in each one of the above days. Thus, as these are new cases, they need 14 days to recover. Therefore, let’s take the numbers for the period of new cases ranging from the 20th March to the 2nd April 2021. This is a fourteen-day period. In total, as can be seen from the table above, the active cases amount between 20th March and 2nd April are 1433. The problem is in the following. The number of active cases declared by the Department of Health on 2nd April is 687.
There is definitely a discrepancy between these two numbers. How can there be a total number of 687 cases when the total number of new cases between 20th March and 2nd April is 1433?
Definitely, there is a mathematical discrepancy between the total of the declared cases today and the number of cases that were being declared as new cases over the last fourteen days. An explanation is definitely required.
One may argue that the Department of Health has calculated its effective numbers over a period of 10 days, instead of 14 days. This would definitely bring down the number of the declared cases on 2nd April 2021. But still, even if this general total of 2nd April 2021 is calculated on 10 and not 14 days recovery period, still the numbers do not tally. Why?
I hope that those who are questioning my BLOGS, including fellow academics, give me a concrete explanation for this statistical discrepancy. I hope that academics from the Health Sciences can explain to me these mathematical variations. Else their scientific reasoning and measurements are being based on a false mathematical premise.