Ukrainian military officials finally admitted to their American and other Western counterparts that the missile that landed in Poland at the Polish village of Przewowdow a day earlier that killed two people, was ‘most likely’ an errant air defense missile with which the Ukrainian Armed Forces ”attempted to intercept a Russian missile in the same timeframe and near the location”.
The admission by Ukraine’s military marks a dramatic climbdown by Kyiv since Tuesday, when Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called the incident a “Russian attack on the collective security” of NATO. In a video statement, Zelensky even urged the West to put Russia “in its place” in response.
Independent military analysts, upon reviewing the footage, had quickly determined the provenance of the missile as being an old Soviet S-300 surface-to-air missile in service with the armed forces of Ukraine. Indeed they even identified that it belonged to the 540th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the Ukrainian Air Force. Faced with further evidence from NATO itself (Reuters claims that the US even provided satellite intelligence that it was beyond doubt a Ukrainian missile), the Ukrainians it seems could deny it no further.
Furthermore, independent military experts, unconstrained by any embarrassing political considerations, have also stated that this version of the missile, the S-300PS could also be used in a ground-to-ground configuration, thereby entertaining the possibility that it could have been fired deliberately in that configuration, to provoke a response from NATO.
The idea of a deliberate provocation by an ever more desperate Ukraine to drag NATO directly into the conflict is not only entertained by independent geo-political analysts but is also suspected by many Poles themselves.
The head of the city council of Lublin, called for a review of Poland’s policy towards Ukraine (machine translation):
“I absolutely do not understand the actions of our President and government… It is obvious that this is a Ukrainian missile. It is obvious that this is a provocation on the part of the Ukrainian authorities. The missile could not have been launched 100 km in the opposite direction by mistake armaments to Ukraine, to intimidate Europe with terrible Russia, so that civil society demanded from the governments of European countries to increase assistance to Ukraine. Today, our president should not reassure us with fairy tales like “it was not so much a rocket explosion, but an explosion of fuel that was there” and “it was accident”, but to make it clear to V. Zelensky that Poland will no longer tolerate such behavior of the Ukrainian authorities! I urge you to reconsider Poland’s position on this war in the event of another crossing of the red line!”
It is important here to note that this is far from the first time, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were actively responsible for attacks and fatalities on NATO states – it just suffices to point out that there have been many other occasions including:
March 2 – A Ukrainian missile fired by the S-300 air defense system destroyed a Romanian MiG-21 fighter. The pilot was killed.
March 2 – Ukrainian air defense shot down a Romanian military transport helicopter Mi-8, which flew out to look for a MiG-21 fighter pilot shot down by Ukraine. The entire crew was killed.
March 3 – The Estonian bulk carrier ‘’Helt’’ was blown up by a Ukrainian naval mine off the coast of Odessa. 4 people remain missing presumably dead
March 10 – Ukrainian UAV Tu-141 “Swift” somehow ended up in Zagreb. Luckily, no one died.
March 13 – Ukrainian territorial forces opened fire on the car of an American journalist from the New York Times, Brent Reno, in the Irpen region.
September 9 – a Romanian minesweeper was blown up by a Ukrainian naval mine near Constanta. Luckily, there were no fatalities.
November 9 – A Turkish boat was blown up by a Ukrainian naval mine off the coast of Turkey. Luckily, no one died.
On each occasion Ukraine tried to pin the blame on Russia, on each occasion – it was subsequently proven that it was Ukraine that was to blame.
The truth is that it has always been Ukraine that has caused fatalities in NATO member states – and one, therefore, wonders, why NATO never demanded the application of Article 5 of the NATO Charter to strike back at the aggressor country.
But then we always knew that Ukraine is simply a NATO proxy, doing NATO’s dirty work (NATO secretary general has recently stated that a defeat for Ukraine (isn’t it supposed to be winning?) would be a defeat for NATO (how so? How is the defeat of a non-NATO country the defeat of NATO? Unless it is in fact a NATO proxy force?) – so it can be forgiven for the ‘’odd mistake’’ – the danger here being of course, that these might not be mistakes at all, that the tail is trying very hard to wag the dog, into an unpredictable situation – to get it directly embroiled into a direct conflagration with Russia.
In my opinion, there was never any doubt that NATO would not invoke article 5 on the basis of this incident even if it was a Russian missile. NATO has no appetite for a direct war with Russia – a war it is incapable of fighting (I will write on this in a separate article and tell you why) let alone winning.
But NATO will not lose any opportunity to demonise Russia – as Biden said, it may have been a Ukrainian missile but Russia is to blame.
Thanks to the pliant media, each of the participants in this charade will get their own benefits.
The Western sponsors of Kyiv will be able to sell more weapons, raise the shares of their defense enterprises, and also deploy military personnel on foreign territories. It will also be milked to convince the European public, that their eventual impoverishment is all for a good cause.
As for the Polish ruling party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, this is a godsend in view of the declining support from the electorate. Hence all the theatrics.
Kaczynski will use the incident to justify spending huge sums to strengthen Poland’s defense capability to the detriment of the country’s economy. And the ruling elite will present itself before the upcoming elections as the only guarantor of the republic’s security.
All is fair in love and war – above all lies.